NFL Free Agency Predictions: Who Signs Where and for How Much?

The Market is Set: What to Expect in NFL Free Agency

NFL Free Agency is here, and with it comes the annual test of both loyalty and market value. Are teams committed to their players? Are players loyal to their franchises? The tampering period kicks off at 4 PM ET today, and teams are preparing to go all in for the upcoming season.

Even before the official window opens, we’ve already seen massive moves: Saquon Barkley and Myles Garrett securing record-breaking extensions, shaking up the market, and setting new benchmarks for their respective positions. Other key trades—like Davante Adams to the Rams and Jarvis Landry to the Patriots—have only intensified the anticipation.

With all that in mind, here are our top predictions for where some of the biggest names in free agency will land, based on factors like scheme fit, salary cap considerations, and team needs.

Quarterbacks

Sam Darnold to the Seahawks (3 years, $135M)

Seattle stunned the league by offloading both Geno Smith and DK Metcalf, leaving a major void at quarterback. Enter Sam Darnold. With Klint Kubiak bringing a similar offensive philosophy to Kevin O’Connell’s in Minnesota, Darnold finds himself in an ideal system—one that gives him stability, a clear WR1, and the contract he’s been waiting for. (Amit)

Justin Fields to the Jets (2 years, $25M)

The post-Rodgers era in New York needs a fresh start, and Fields fits the bill. His dual-threat ability can unlock a new dimension in the Jets' offense, much like how the 49ers utilized Brock Purdy’s mobility. With a strong supporting cast, Fields gets a chance to redeem himself on a team eager for a young, high-upside QB. (Brandon)

Running Backs

Najee Harris to the Chargers (2 years, $28M)

Jim Harbaugh loves a physical, run-heavy offense, and Najee Harris fits the mold perfectly. After a somewhat underwhelming year, Harris will join an almost empty backfield in Los Angeles, making him the workhorse Harbaugh’s system demands. (Brandon)

Nick Chubb to the Steelers (2 years, $8M)

No team understands Chubb’s dominance better than the Steelers. With T.J. Watt anchoring the defense, Pittsburgh is overdue for offensive reinforcements. If Chubb returns to form after injury, he could be a game-changer in a division that knows his capabilities all too well. (Amit)

J.K. Dobbins to the Cowboys (1 year, $10M)

Dallas is seeking stability in its backfield, and Dobbins is a high-upside option despite concerns about durability. Jerry Jones has never shied away from taking risks on talented but injury-prone players, and if Dobbins stays healthy, he could be a steal. (Amit)

Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs to the Cardinals (1 year, $15M)

Arizona needs a veteran playmaker, and Diggs is looking for a high-volume passing offense to prove he still has it. Pairing him with Kyler Murray could be mutually beneficial, both for the offense and for Diggs’ next contract. (Brandon)

Chris Godwin to the Jaguars (2 years, $48M)

With Trevor Lawrence looking for reinforcements after losing Christian Kirk and Evan Engram, Godwin’s arrival makes perfect sense. His best season came under Liam Coen in Tampa Bay, and now Coen is in Jacksonville, making this reunion a natural fit. (Amit)

Tight Ends

Evan Engram to the Seahawks (2 years, $24M)

Seattle doubles down on offensive weapons, adding Engram to complement their new QB. Engram provides an athletic receiving threat in a system that has already maximized former Giants like Leonard Williams and Julian Love. (Amit)

Tyler Conklin to the Patriots (1 year, $8M)

New England needs a reliable safety valve for Drake Maye, and Conklin fits the bill. He’s a cost-effective signing who brings steady production without breaking the bank. (Brandon)

Offensive Line

Cam Robinson to the Patriots (4 years, $96M)

Drake Maye’s development is priority No. 1 in New England, and fortifying the offensive line is crucial. With the most cap space in the league, the Patriots will invest heavily to protect their young QB. (Amit)

Josh Myers to the Bears (2 years, $20M)

Chicago struggled at center last season, cycling through inconsistent options. Myers provides stability and youth to an offensive line that needs reliability. (Brandon)

Defensive Line

Milton Williams to the Cardinals (3 years, $75M)

Arizona reunites Williams with his former defensive coordinator, Jonathan Gannon, in a move that strengthens their interior defense. (Amit)

B.J. Hill to the Giants (2 years, $28M)

New York brings Hill back to pair with Dexter Lawrence, bolstering their defensive front against both the run and pass. (Brandon)

Edge Rushers

Joey Bosa to the 49ers (1 year, $24M)

Pairing the Bosa brothers in San Francisco is a marketing dream and a nightmare for opposing offenses. With Nick already dominating, adding Joey makes this pass rush elite. (Amit)

Chase Young to the Bears (1 year, $17M)

Chicago rolls the dice on Young’s upside. If he stays healthy, he could be the impact pass-rusher they desperately need. (Brandon)

Players Most Likely to Be Overpaid

Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers’ name alone will secure him a massive contract, but his recent performances don’t justify elite QB money.

Von Miller

Edge rushers command premium salaries, but Miller’s decline combined with his injury history makes him a risky investment at a high price.

Best Value Signings

Justin Fields (QB)

Young, mobile, and still developing, Fields offers far more upside than veterans like Russell Wilson or Rodgers at a fraction of the cost.

Dre Greenlaw (LB)

A Super Bowl-tested linebacker with top-tier instincts, Greenlaw is one of the best values in this free-agent class.

Free Agents to Avoid

Sam Darnold (QB)

Despite a solid season, Darnold is a major risk at the price he’s expected to command. His potential contract could far outweigh his actual impact.

Darius Slay (CB)

Aging corners often experience sharp declines, and Slay’s release from a Super Bowl-contending team signals that his best days might be behind him.

Final Thoughts

NFL Free Agency is unpredictable, but understanding team needs, cap situations, and player value helps forecast the moves ahead. As the market unfolds, expect some surprises—but also expect some teams to win big by securing the right players at the right prices.